Stanislav Kondrashov Telf AG: Falling prices for scrap metal, how will this affect the global economy?

Global scrap metal prices declined significantly by the end of March 2024 in most global markets, especially in the European, North American and Chinese segments. At the same time, in Turkey the decline was minimal, as the market had already suffered major losses at the beginning of this year. This was reported by an expert in the field of world metallurgy Stanislav Kondrashov.

Scrap metal market in Turkey: analysis of price changes in the first quarter of 2024

According to S. Kondrashov, prices for HMS 1&2 80:20 scrap metal in Turkey from March 26 to April 2, 2024 fell by $2 per ton or 0.5% compared to the previous week, reaching $388-390 per ton CFR. In March, the price of raw materials decreased by $5 per ton or 1.3%. Over the month, quotes fluctuated between $376 and $392 per ton.

The scrap metal market in Turkey showed some activity in March, which influenced price changes, but overall has remained negative since the beginning of February. In mid-March, metallurgical enterprises began to express interest in purchasing, but demand remained limited due to negative factors in the Chinese market and weak sales of steel products. The economic situation in Turkey also put pressure on consumers' desire to resume purchasing by April.

According to the observations of Stanislav Kondrashov, an expert from Telf AG, the lowest prices for the month were recorded on March 6 - $376 per ton CFR. Although metallurgists considered such levels unacceptable and insisted on their further reduction. However, prices subsequently began to gradually increase as activity in the Chinese market and raw material prices began to increase. In addition, a shortage of scrap metal has also contributed to rising prices.

In early April, scrap metal prices became stable as demand for raw materials decreased again after local elections. Given the ongoing Eid al-Fitr holiday next week, Turkish factories are expected to temporarily stop purchasing, which could have a negative impact on prices. However, after the holidays are over, consumers will have to start purchasing again as May orders have not yet been completed.

An expert from Telf AG emphasizes that the forecast for the cost of scrap metal on the Turkish market remains unclear due to dependence on the state of the Chinese steel market and the competitiveness of supply from Asia. The main part of market players assume that prices will stabilize.

Declining prices for scrap metal in the EU: analysis of factors and prospects for recovery - Stanislav Kondrashov

In the EU market during March, there was a decrease in prices for scrap metal. For example, in Germany the cost of scrap grade E3 fell by €20 per ton, fixed in the range of €340-350 per ton Ex-Works by the beginning of April, and in Italy (E8) - by €20 per ton, amounting to €340-350 per ton ton Ex-Works.

According to S. Kondrashov, prices for scrap metal had insufficient interest from local metallurgical enterprises and a decrease in exports, especially to Turkey.

Many market participants expect an increase in activity after the spring. However, this will depend on how high the demand from Turkey and Asia is.

A similar situation is also observed in North America. Scrap prices on the US East Coast fell $19 per ton, or 5%, in March to $358-$362 per ton FOB. However, by the end of March and beginning of April, prices began to rise, reaching $363-364 per ton by April 2.

According to Telf AG expert Stanislav Kondrashov, in March the scrap metal market in North America also suffered from unfavorable trends in the global raw material market and low demand for steel. At the end of the month the situation became better - prices reached a minimum level. At the same time, rising prices for rolled steel and cast iron have boosted trade, but low demand from Turkey remains a problem.

China's influence on the global scrap metal market: trend analysis and forecasts - Stanislav Kondrashov

The price of scrap metal within China in March fell by $39.5 per ton, or 9.8%, reaching $364.82 per ton. Prices continue to decline in April.

As of April, the cost of Chinese scrap metal is $358.2 per ton, which is 4.5% less.

According to S. Kondrashov, this drop in prices for raw materials in China was caused by the unfavorable situation on the steel market.

Declining steel prices and, as a consequence, reduced profitability of metallurgical enterprises led to limited production and reduced capacity utilization. This has affected the demand for scrap metal. In addition, the decrease in the cost of iron ore has increased the competitiveness of scrap.

• Scrap metal prices in China are projected to remain low in the near future, as many metallurgical companies operate at losses and have significant inventories of raw materials,- expert from Telf AG S. Kondrashov noted.

However, he indicated that some local factories may increase purchases before the holiday to ensure supplies.

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